I don’t claim to be a box office expert by any means. I usually leave tracking the totals and
predicting grosses to the Hollywood bean counters, but every now and then a
distribution choice will make me pause and say “hmm.” The one I’m currently puzzling over is the release dates of The
Conjuring and Insidious: Chapter 2.
What the hell is going on?
The Conjuring was released on July 19. Insidious 2 is slated for September
13. That’s only 8 weeks apart. Both are James Wan directed spookfests
likely to feature his distinctive creepy style, so there are definite
similarities inherent. My question is,
is it too soon? I’m sure we all
remember what happened earlier this year with Olympus Has Fallen and White
House Down. Olympus wasn’t a
runaway hit, but it did respectable numbers.
14 weeks later, White House tanked. Neither was all that good from what I’ve heard, so that might
have something to do with it, but most box office analysts maintain that
“didn’t we just see that movie?” syndrome had a hand in the more expensive
flick’s failure. With only 8 weeks
between them, could The Conjuring hurt Insidious 2’s performance?
Let’s examine the various factors at play here. As hardcore horror fans, we all know that
they will be “different but the same.” We care about the story and the characters.
The casual moviegoer who might see the new horror flick if they’ve
already seen the blockbusters or is just looking for a snogging spot will
probably look at it as “another ghost flick.” Then again, originality isn’t all that valued as a commodity by
the majority of moviegoers. There’s
also the fact that it’s a sequel to a successful movie, so that “sameness”
could actually work in Insidious 2’s favor. Is it too much of the same at one time or is striking while the
iron is hot a smart move? I’m not
making an assertion one way or the other, because I can see both outcomes being equally likely. Either way, though,
I think it's a risky move
It seems to me that the smarter course of action would have
been to drop Chapter 2 in October.
Yes, I know that’s only a few more weeks, but then you would have the
Halloween factor working for you. The
only real competition would have been Paranormal Activity 5 and the Carrie
remake. Now that PA5 has been
moved to next year, Insidious 2 could have been the big Halloween movie of 2013. I know it’s short notice,
but release dates have been changed that close to rollout before. They’re probably counting on the flick holding
over into spook season, but that’s a heavy gamble in this age of ever shortening theatrical runs.
Will it be like opening two of the same
restaurant in the same town and they’re so similar that it kills one of them?
Will it be like putting two Starbucks on the same block and the product is so
hot (pun intended) that the rabid, cult-like fans will eat it up and both will
thrive? I know which one I’m hoping
for, but I also know which one I’m afraid is gonna end up happening. I hope I’m wrong. What do you think Cellmates?
Am I onto something or am I reading WAY too much into this? Sound off in the comments section and tell
me how you think this will go down.
Here’s hoping that they both rake in the cash because when horror wins,
we all win.
4 comments:
I would say the majority of people seeing either film does not know who James Wan is. I don't believe his name is advertised much, if at all, with the movies he makes so I don't think it will be a big deal them being released so close together.
It's not so much the name that I think people might find too familiar, but the style.
I loved The Conjuring so it's making me more excited for insidious2.
I'm a big fan of Insidious so my excitement is there anyway.
For me the release dates are irrelevant
K :-)
@Tim:
They may not know his name, but Conjuring was advertised as "from the director of Saw and Insidious", so the masses, as stupid as they may be, they definitely know what's going on.
@Nathan:
At first I thought the same, though now I think it could work and will definitely NOT bomb.
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